Climate Disasters Could Threaten Animal Habitats by 2085

By 2085, over one-third of land-animal habitats may be exposed to several climate-related disasters if global warming continues to increase.

This raises serious concern: heatwaves, fires, floods and droughts could each contribute substantially to ecological decline, reducing the places where many animals can live, travel and survive.

Animal habitats face climate risks

This warning applies to numerous vulnerable locations throughout the areas currently occupied by land animals worldwide.

Stefanie Heinicke of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) mapped these places.

She linked existing habitats with projected extreme events, identifying where recurring shocks may overlap.

The issue is not simply that one disaster could occur, but that several forms of stress may hit the same habitat over short timeframes.

This matters because exposure alone does not demonstrate future collapse, although it indicates where conservation strategies may need to prioritise combined risks.

When disasters compound

One fire or flood may kill animals directly, while another shock can remove food, shelter or breeding areas.

In the 2019-2020 Australian megafires, vast blazes spread through drought-affected landscapes, with severe drying before the fires responsible for much of the damage.

Plant and animal declines were 27 to 40 percent greater in places that had experienced drought before the fires.

“I think climate change, and in particular extreme events, are still really being underestimated when it comes to conservation planning,” said Heinicke.

Heat will impact most animal habitats

By 2050, continuing medium-high greenhouse gas pollution would expose heatwaves to 74 percent of the current range area of land vertebrates.

A major climate assessment associates additional warming with increasingly frequent extreme heat, when bodies overheat and the need for water rises.

Areas at particular risk include the Amazon basin, the extensive river region of South America, as well as Africa and Southeast Asia.

Under the same pathway, heatwave exposure climbs to 93 percent by 2085, leaving fewer cool and safe areas within recognised ranges.

Fire enters planning

Under the team’s medium-high pathway, fire ranked as the second most widespread danger, ahead of drought.

Using climate impact models - computer tools that convert climate conditions into events - the researchers assessed the effects of burned area.

These estimates were produced through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMSP), a network comparing climate-impact simulations across different sectors.

Wildfire estimates were particularly high, pointing to a greater-than-anticipated danger relative to other hazards.

Droughts reveal unevenness

Initially, drought appeared less extensive, affecting eight percent of range area by 2050 and 14 percent by 2085.

In this case, soil moisture - water retained around plant roots - was included alongside total rainfall amounts.

This indicator captures prolonged dry spells, as roots may lose access to usable water when rainfall patterns shift.

Amphibians experience greater drought exposure than other groups because many depend on moist skin, ponds or damp breeding locations.

Floods impact some animal habitats

River flooding affected smaller range areas, yet remained important in places where water surges harm low-lying habitats.

Projected flood exposure covered 3 percent of species range area by 2050, increasing to 5 percent by 2085.

In contrast with heat, flood danger was concentrated in particular river systems, meaning global averages can conceal intense local pressure.

For conservation teams, this pattern supports focused planning for wetlands, riverbanks and refuges rather than a universal approach.

Species maps matter

Range maps gave the projections biological relevance by indicating where species are currently known to occur.

Researchers used the IUCN Red List, a global database of species extinction risk, for mammal and amphibian data.

Bird and reptile ranges were obtained from separate conservation-mapping projects, after which the team aligned every range with grid squares on future-hazard maps.

As small islands were left out of the grid, species found only on islands may face dangers not captured by these estimates.

Choices change outcomes

Emission pathways - future trajectories for greenhouse gas pollution - substantially altered the PIK team’s estimates as warming routes separated after the middle of the century.

On a low-emission pathway, exposure to multiple events reaches nine percent by 2085 rather than 36 percent.

On a higher pathway, that same figure reaches 44 percent, illustrating how delayed reductions increase pressure on habitats.

“There’s still a lot of difference we can make by cutting emissions as fast as we can from today,” said Heinicke.

Exposure is not destiny

Exposure does not mean that every animal will die, as species vary in their sensitivity, mobility and adaptive capacity - the ability to respond to stress.

Some animals could alter their drinking, feeding or nesting behaviour, whereas others may be unable to move sufficiently far or quickly enough to survive.

Existing range maps also do not account for future movement, habitat loss, disease or human-made barriers that may confine populations.

Despite these limitations, the findings identify locations where field biologists should examine actual survival and recovery.

What comes next

Conservation planning has a clearer focus when heat, fire, drought and flooding are displayed together on the same animal maps.

More robust local monitoring can convert this global warning into practical decisions about refuges, corridors, fire management and emissions reductions.